Will fusion power get cheap? Don’t count on it.

The Fusion Conundrum: Will Cheap Energy Remain Elusive?

The promise of fusion power has long been touted as a game-changer for the energy landscape. This zero-emissions source of electricity has the potential to provide a steady, reliable supply of energy, free from the constraints of fossil fuels. However, a new study suggests that even if fusion power becomes a reality, it may not come cheap.

The Cost Curve: A Historical Perspective

Technologies tend to get less expensive over time. Lithium-ion batteries, for example, are now about 90% cheaper than they were in 2013. However, the rate at which different technologies decline in cost varies significantly. Onshore wind power, for instance, has an experience rate of 12%, meaning that its cost drops by 12% every time capacity doubles. In contrast, lithium-ion batteries have an experience rate of 20%, while solar modules have an impressive 23%.

Fusion's Experience Rate: A Crucial Metric

The experience rate is a crucial measure of a technology's cost decline. A higher figure indicates a quicker price drop and better economic gains with scaling. Historically, fission has an experience rate of just 2%, making it one of the least cost-effective energy technologies. In the new study, researchers aimed to improve predictions of fusion's future price by estimating its experience rate.

Estimating Fusion's Experience Rate

The researchers interviewed fusion experts, including public-sector researchers and those working at companies in the private sector. They had the experts evaluate fusion power plants on three key characteristics that can correlate with experience rate: unit size, design complexity, and the need for customization. The larger and more complex a technology is, and/or the more it needs to be customized for different use cases, the lower the experience rate.

Fusion Plants: A Complex and Customized Technology

Fusion plants will likely be relatively large, similar to other types of facilities that rely on generating heat. They will probably need less customization than fission plants, largely because regulations and safety considerations should be simpler. However, they will require more customization than technologies like solar panels. And as for complexity, "there was almost unanimous agreement that fusion is incredibly complex," says Lingxi Tang, a PhD candidate in the energy and technology policy group at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and one of the authors of the study.

The Final Figure: A Slow Rate of Decline

The final figure the researchers suggest for fusion's experience rate is between 2% and 8%. This means that it will see a faster price reduction than nuclear power but not as dramatic an improvement as many common energy technologies being deployed today. That means that it would take a lot of deployment—and likely quite a long time—for the price of building a fusion reactor to drop significantly, so electricity produced by fusion plants could be expensive for a while.

Implications and Questions

The implications of this study are significant. If fusion power is not going to be as cheap as previously thought, then it raises questions about the current investment levels in fusion. "On the whole, I think questions should be raised about current investment levels in fusion," Tang says. "If you're talking about decarbonization of the energy system, is this really the best use of public money?"

A Humble Approach

However, some experts say that looking to the past to understand the future of energy prices might be misleading. "It's a good exercise, but we have to be humble about how much we don't know," says Egemen Kolemen, a professor at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. How fast prices drop depends on regulations, geopolitical dynamics, and labor cost, he says: "We haven't built the thing yet, so we don't know."

Conclusion

The promise of fusion power remains a tantalizing prospect, but the reality is that it may not come cheap. The experience rate of fusion is likely to be slower than previously thought, which raises questions about the current investment levels in fusion. However, it's also important to be humble about how much we don't know, and to recognize that the future of energy prices is inherently uncertain. As we move forward, it's essential to continue to invest in research and development, but also to be mindful of the costs and implications of our decisions.

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Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/23/1136329/fusion-power-cost/